Abstract: Methods and Forecasts of House Price Appreciation Forecasts and Probabilities

Provides a detailed analysis of the methods used in estimating quarterly appreciation rates, and probabilities of decline, in each of the nation's 381 MSAs. The results of this modeling procedure form the basis of the results for a quarterly Economic and Real Estate Trends report produced by The PMI Group, Inc.

Speaker Bio: Dr. LaVaughn M. Henry is the Director of U.S. Economic Analysis for The PMI Group, Inc., in the Economics & Corporate Strategy Department. PMI is a leader in the private mortgage insurance industry.

Dr. Henry is responsible for developing PMI's econometric modeling efforts and projections of home prices (at the national, state, and metropolitan levels) and PMI's U.S. Market Risk Index. In addition, he is in charge of producing regular analyses of the U.S. economy and housing and mortgage markets. He is an accomplished public speaker and regularly presents to various industry, government, and other professional organizations. Dr. Henry helped to develop and co-authors the company's two regular economic publications: Economic and Real Estate Trends (ERET) and The Housing & Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR), and has led in the development of many of the company's econometric models and various other predictive tools used in the assessment of risk in the housing and mortgage markets.

Prior to working at PMI, Dr. Henry was the Director of Midwest Regional Communications at Fannie Mae, in its Housing and Community Development Group. He has also held senior economic positions in the Budget Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight), the FDIC's Resolution Trust Corporation, PricewaterhouseCoopers, and Ford Motor Company.

Dr. Henry received both his Doctorate and Masters degrees from Harvard University in Economics, specializing in the areas of Finance and Industrial Organization.